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☆ US consumer spending was weaker in the second quarter than previously estimated
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-28 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

However, consumer spending, America’s economic engine, was revised much lower, to a 0.8% annualized rate, according to data released Thursday. Spending in the second quarter grew at its weakest pace since the first quarter of 2022, when it was flat. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic output. The second quarter stretches from April through June, but the Commerce Department releases consumer spending figures on a monthly basis. In July, consumer spending jumped a robust 0.8%, the strongest monthly gain since January, as shoppers spent on concerts, films, toys and recreational equipment.

Persons: ”, Claire Li, Gregory Daco Organizations: DC CNN, Commerce, Commerce Department, Moody’s Investors, Moody’s Investors Service Locations: Washington, EY

Goldman Sachs economists have estimated that a shutdown would reduce growth by about 0.2 percentage points for each week it lasts. But the Goldman researchers expect growth to increase by the same amount in the quarter after the shutdown as federal work rebounded and furloughed employees received back pay. That estimate tracks with previous work from economists at the Fed, on Wall Street and prior presidential administrations. Trump administration economists calculated that a monthlong shutdown in 2019 reduced growth by 0.13 percentage points per week. Because growth and confidence tend to snap back, previous shutdowns have left few permanent scars on the economy.

Persons: Gregory Daco, ” Biden, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Trump Organizations: Administration, shutdowns, Congressional, Office Locations: EY

Storm clouds are growing over the U.S. economy as the third quarter winds down this week. There is the ongoing strike by United Auto Workers members against the major car manufacturers. There is the rising price of oil with the international benchmark Brent crude now sitting above $93 a barrel. Aiding the economy’s escape from a downturn has been an unusual set of circumstances that include falling inflation, rising wages and some leftover stimulus from the COVID pandemic. “Such a shutdown could leave a visible mark on the economy,” Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said last week.

Persons: Bob Doll, ” Gregory Daco, ” Daco, ” Wells Organizations: United Auto Workers, Brent, Crossmark Advisors, Federal Reserve, ”, Fed Locations: U.S

☆ The top economist at EY thinks the US economy faces a 'trifecta' of threats that could make Americans stop shopping and cause a slowdown
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

EY chief economist Gregory Daco thinks "consumers are becoming more conservative with their spending." Coming up is another headwind: the restart of federal student-loan payments. The different economic threats means consumer spending growth may not be so hot next year, as consumers are already reducing their spending. Other economists have pointed out how the upcoming student-loan payment restart will have an impact on the economy. Have you changed your spending habits or are you spending less on certain items given the restart of student-loan payments, fewer savings, and other factors?

Persons: Gregory Daco, Taylor Swift, it's, Daco, Torsten Sløk, NYU Stern, David Kelly Organizations: Service, Consumer, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, NYU, Morgan Asset Management, AAA, CNBC Locations: Wall, Silicon, American, —, mhoff@insider.com

☆ US debt rises to $33 trillion as government shutdown looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —As the US national debt passes $33 trillion and a government shutdown looms, Wall Street feels defensive. What’s happening: The gross national debt has grown at an alarming pace since then — by $1 trillion in the last three months alone. Political finger pointing around what caused the accelerated debt accrual, meanwhile, has left the government at an impasse around the budget. The recent increase in interest rates has already made it much more expensive for the government to pay back what it owes. That would leave the door open for another rate increase, which could come when the following meeting concludes, on November 1.

Persons: Fitch, ”, Michael Peterson, Peter G, Peterson, Biden, Gary Schlossberg, Jennifer Timmerman, Gregory Daco, Bryan Mena, Jerome Powell, Instacart, Jordan Valinsky Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, AAA, AA, GOP, UAW, Wells, Investment Institute, Fed, Federal, Financial, Walmart Locations: New York, —, Amazon

☆ Inflation slowing and economic slowdown will put pressure on pricing: EY-Parthenon's Gregory Daco
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailInflation slowing and economic slowdown will put pressure on pricing: EY-Parthenon's Gregory DacoGregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, and CNBC's Steve Liesman join 'The Exchange' to discuss their read on inflation and the economy.

Persons: Parthenon's Gregory Daco Gregory Daco, Steve Liesman Locations: EY

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Investors lower outlook for consumers as student loans, credit card debts pile up
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"The U.S. consumer is on thin ice coming into the final stretch of 2023," said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management. Further declines in the labor market will likely act as a double-edged sword for investors, relieving some inflation pressures while weighing on consumer spending. Overall consumer spending rose slightly more than expected in August, while the savings rate fell to its lowest since November 2022, the Commerce Department said on Thursday. Betting against the consumer spending has so far been a losing wager. (This story has been corrected to say BNY Mellon Investment Management, not BNY Mellon, in paragraph 10)Reporting by David Randall; editing by Megan Davies and Andy SullivanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Caitlin Ochs, Nordstrom, Macy's, Emily Roland, Jake Jolly, Gregory Daco, Young, Jason Draho, Sandy Villere, Mellon, David Randall, Megan Davies, Andy Sullivan Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apollo Group . Department, John Hancock Investment Management, of Labor Statistics, Commerce Department, BNY Mellon Investment Management, Treasury, Ernst, Atlanta Fed's, UBS Global Wealth Management, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Villere, Thomson Locations: New York City, Russia, Ukraine, New York, U.S

☆ The Fed’s preferred inflation measure stayed high in July — and consumers are continuing to spend
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-31 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Minneapolis CNN —US inflation may have remained elevated in July, but consumers just wanted to have some fun. It’s the strongest monthly spending gain since January; however, underlying data indicates this type of activity may be on borrowed time. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index showed that prices increased 0.2% on a monthly basis and 3.3% annually. Economists were expecting monthly increases of 0.2% for the headline and core indexes and 3.3% and 4.2%, respectively, for the annual numbers. Even when adjusted for inflation, spending surged in July, rising by 0.6% from the month before.

Persons: ” Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, “, ” Gregory Daco, EY, Jerome Powell, ” Powell, Wells, Shannon Seery, Wells Fargo, ” Seery, ” Daco, Powell, Jackson, ” Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, New Commerce Department, Federal, Commerce Department, Amazon’s, PCE, CNN, “, of Labor Statistics Locations: Minneapolis, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ What do ‘Big Short’ Michael Burry and Warren Buffett know that we don’t?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-16 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Michael Burry, the “Big Short” investor who became famous for correctly predicting the epic collapse of the housing market in 2008, also made a gigantic bet last quarter on a Wall Street crash. Bank of America released its August global fund manager survey on Tuesday and found that money managers are feeling the least pessimistic about markets since February 2022. So what do Buffett and Burry know that the rest of us don’t? Russia and Ukraine: Global inflation is finally coming down, but heightened geopolitical tensions threaten to raise food and oil prices across the globe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to stoke fears of increased commodity prices, global economic instability and uncertainty around security.

Persons: Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, That’s, Michael Burry, Buffett, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, hasn’t, Fitch, ”, Gregory Daco, Catherine Thorbecke, Catherine Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Securities, Exchange, Scion Asset Management, Bank of America, Traders, National Bureau of Statistics, JPMorgan, CNBC, Bank, First Republic Bank, Huntington Bank, PacWest, Western Alliance, Commerce Department Locations: New York, China, Ukraine, Russia, stoke, Huntington, Lahaina , Hawaii, Lahaina, Las Vegas, Maui

☆ US retail spending picked up sharply in July
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-15 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

It was also the fourth straight month that retail sales increased. Retail sales, which are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, rose 0.7% in July from the prior month, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Spending rose on nondurable items, such as clothing and sporting goods. Excluding spending at gasoline stations, retail sales rose 0.8% in July from the prior month. “Goods consumption is holding up even as services spending has taken up an increasing share of household’s wallets.

Persons: —, TJ Maxx, ”, Nikki Baird, Barbie, Taylor, Beyoncé, Taylor Swift, Gregory Daco, haven’t, Wells Organizations: DC CNN, Retail, Commerce Department, Commerce, Walmart, Target, Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Fed, “ Retailers Locations: Washington, EY

☆ Businesses aren't acting like a recession is coming this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-30 | by ( Noah Sheidlower | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Still, businesses aren't feeling too optimistic, with most still expecting a recession this year. However, big companies are hiring, businesses are expanding, and lots of entrepreneurs are filing to open new startups. This was partly due to consumers spending more and business investment being way up. The main measure of business investment in the GDP report is well above pre-pandemic levels, and shows no signs of slowing down ahead of a hypothetical recession. Businesses also aren't feeling too optimistic according to the National Federation of Independent Business' Small Business Optimism Index.

Persons: —, Gregory Daco, Daco, Jeffrey Roach, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Bureau, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, US . Entrepreneurs, Economic Innovation Group, Economic, Nationwide, Edelman Data, Intelligence, National Federation of Independent Business, LPL, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Bokeh Capital's Kim Forrest and EY-Parthenon's Gregory Daco
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Bokeh Capital's Kim Forrest and EY-Parthenon's Gregory DacoKim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners, and Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, join 'The Exchange' to discuss revenue earnings coming in higher than expected, global growth divergence influencing U.S. monetary policy, and more.

Persons: Bokeh Capital's Kim Forrest, Parthenon's Gregory Daco Kim Forrest, Gregory Daco Organizations: Bokeh Capital Partners Locations: EY

☆ The pathway to a soft landing is still very much possible, says EY-Parthenon's Gregory Daco
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe pathway to a soft landing is still very much possible, says EY-Parthenon's Gregory DacoKim Forrest, chief investment officer at Bokeh Capital Partners, and Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, join 'The Exchange' to discuss revenue earnings coming in higher than expected, global growth divergence influencing U.S. monetary policy, and more.

Persons: Parthenon's Gregory Daco Kim Forrest, Gregory Daco Organizations: Bokeh Capital Partners Locations: EY

☆ The US economy is surging
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Real gross domestic product, or real GDP, grew at an annualized rate of 2.4%. That advance estimate for the second quarter beat the 1.8% increase expected. A recent GDP preview from Gregory Daco, chief economist of EY, also highlighted strength in the US economy and what it may mean. "Still, the economy continues to face significant headwinds from persistently elevated prices and costs, tightening credit conditions and rising interest rates. That's also much higher than the 3.2% seen in the second quarter of 2022.

Persons: Bill Adams, Jerome Powell, Powell, Gregory Daco, Daco, That's Organizations: Service, BEA, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank's, Fed Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ 15 years of low interest rates reshaped the U.S. economy. Here's what's changing as rates stay higher for longer
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Carlos Waters | In Carloswaters | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The United States is entering a new economic era as the Federal Reserve hikes its benchmark interest rate. As interest rates climb, economists say financial conditions are headed back to being more normal. Government bonds, Treasury securities and savings accounts all return very little yield when interest rates are low. At the same time, low interest rates increase the value of stocks, homes and Wall Street firms that make money by taking on debt. "Barring a catastrophe, I don't think we'll see lower interest rates any time soon," said Mark Hamrick, Washington bureau chief at Bankrate.com.

Persons: Roger Ferguson, we'd, Gregory Daco, Mark Hamrick Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Wall Street Locations: States, America, EY, Washington, Bankrate.com, U.S

☆ US stocks trade mixed as Dow caps off its longest winning streak since 2017
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks traded mixed Friday, with the Dow capping off a 10-day winning streak. It's the longest run of gains for the index since August 2017. Next week investors will be watching big earnings from Microsoft and Meta, as well as a Fed meeting. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. More than 70% of the companies that have reported so far have beat expectations, according to FactSet data.

Persons: Gregory Daco Organizations: Dow, Microsoft, Meta, Service, Dow Jones, American Express, Interpublic, Nasdaq Locations: Wall, Silicon

☆ The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge shows prices rose just 0.1% last month
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Minneapolis CNN —The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge cooled off last month, and consumers reined in some spending as the economy slows, according to data released Friday by the Commerce Department. Personal spending ticked up by just 0.1%, a more moderate pace than April’s revised 0.6% growth rate. When adjusting for inflation, consumer spending was flat. Consumers refill the coffersThe data in recent months shows a gradual cooling in consumer spending, Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, told CNN. “There were no fireworks within the Fed’s favorite inflation report today,” George Mateyo, chief investment officer for KeyBank, wrote in a statement.

Persons: Diane Swonk, ”, Gregory Daco, “ It’s, Friday’s, Abby Omodunbi, Janet Yellen, Yellen, ” Yellen, ” George Mateyo, KeyBank, Swonk, it’s, we’ve Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Commerce Department, CNN, “, PNC, Fed, Transportation Locations: Minneapolis, EY, New Orleans

☆ Economic Data Points to Faster Growth Early in Year
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Ben Casselman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The NewsThe United States economy grew faster early this year than previously believed. That was a significant upward revision from the 1.1 percent growth rate in preliminary data released in April. (An earlier revision, released last month, showed a slightly stronger rate of 1.3 percent.) An alternative measure of growth, based on income rather than production, painted a different picture, showing that the economy contracted for the second quarter in a row. That spending, fueled by a strong job market and rising wages, helped offset declines in other sectors of the economy like business investment and housing.

Persons: ”, Gregory Daco, Ernst, Young Organizations: United, Gross, Commerce Department, EY Locations: United States

☆ US economic growth expanded much faster in the first quarter than previously estimated
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —The US economy expanded at a much faster pace in the first three months of the year than previously estimated, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, rose by an annualized rate of 2% in the first quarter, up from the second estimate of 1.3%. Consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of economic output and the latest estimate incorporated data from the Commerce Department’s Quarterly Services Survey. The revised trade flows contributed positively to GDP, with exports rising more than previously estimated while imports were revised down. And consumers might spend a bit more as the still try to recoup lost time or secure purchases they previously weren’t able to.

Persons: —, ”, Gregory Daco, Ernst & Young, “, Jerome Powell, Bill Adams Organizations: DC CNN, Commerce Department, Gross, Commerce Department’s Quarterly Services Survey, Ernst &, Fed, “ Consumers, Comerica Bank, CNN Locations: Washington

☆ US weekly jobless claims post biggest drop in 20 months as economy shows stamina
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

"The economy is currently displaying genuine signs of resilience," said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon in New York. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 26,000 to a seasonally adjusted 239,000 for the week ended June 24. Continuing claims covered the period during which the government surveyed households for June's unemployment rate. The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in May. GDP consumer contributionEconomists had expected first-quarter GDP growth would be raised slightly to a 1.4% pace.

Persons: Gregory Daco, Unadjusted, Rubeela Farooqi, Jerome Powell, Amira Karaoud, Scott Hoyt, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Reuters, Financial, U.S, Treasury, REUTERS, Conference Board, Gross, Commerce Department, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, EY, New York, Minnesota, Ohio, California, Texas, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New Jersey, White Plains , New York, Spanish, Madrid, Louisville, U.S, West Chester , Pennsylvania

☆ Just days after pausing rate hikes, Fed official calls for more increases
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Washington, DC CNN —The dust has barely settled on the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause its aggressive rate-hiking campaign — but in public appearances Friday, central bank officials have a clear message: Keep hiking. In one of the first speeches, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that additional rate increases are necessary to bring inflation down to the central bank’s 2% target. The Fed’s decision to restart hikes depends on what data show in the coming weeks and months. It is the job of bank leaders to deal with interest rate risk and nearly all bank leaders have done exactly that,” Waller said. A representative of the event said the conference wasn’t being recorded and that only registrants who paid a fee were able to attend.

Persons: Christopher Waller, ” Waller, ”, Gregory Daco, Ernst & Young, ” Powell, Waller, “, Michael Gapen, Gapen, they’re, Louis President James Bullard, Thomas Barkin Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Norges Bank, International Monetary Fund, Ernst &, Bank, BofA Global Research, CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Maryland Government Finance, Association Locations: Washington, Oslo, Norway, ”

☆ Easing inflation pressures give the Fed room to skip a rate hike. But then what?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Softening inflation data for May likely has bought the Federal Reserve at least a month, though not much more, before it has to figure out what to do next. Following the CPI release Tuesday morning, markets priced in a 95% probability that the Fed will skip a hike at its two-day meeting concluding Wednesday, according to CME Group data . "The latest consumer price inflation data doesn't change the Fed outlook for a June rate hike skip, but it illustrates the 'should I stay, or should I go' dilemma that the Fed faces when considering further rate increases," wrote Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon. After this week's meeting, Fed officials will release their "dot plot" rate projections for the next few years, plus their collective outlook on inflation, GDP and unemployment. The retreat on inflation, then, presents both an opportunity and a challenge for a Fed that was caught off guard by the big price surge.

Persons: Gregory Daco, Jim Smigiel, Krishna Guha, Guha, Jerome Powell, Ian Shepherdson Organizations: Federal Reserve, Group, SEI, Evercore ISI, Tech, Pantheon Locations: EY

The Bank of England in February removed its explicit guidance and tied decisions to inflation data. The Bank of Japan, by contrast, still battling to raise perennially weak inflation, has left the core part of its guidance intact with a pledge to "patiently" sustain loose policies. The European Central Bank says it has adopted a "meeting-by-meeting" approach with "a strong preference against returning to outright forward guidance on policy rates." If the projections show the policy rate moving up later this year, officials will likely face questions if they do as expected and hold rates steady at the June meeting. If the rate is not seen moving up, they will face questions about not being responsive to recent data showing strong inflation despite pledging to be "data dependent."

Persons: Jerome Powell, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Powell, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke, Gregory Daco, Louis, James Bullard, Data's, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Louis Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Central

☆ Premarket stocks: The uber-wealthy are doing just fine and Wall Street is cashing in
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

But that’s not the case for everyone: The ultra-wealthy are doing just fine, and Wall Street firms are taking advantage of that. Germany, the largest economy in Europe, has slipped into recession as energy price shocks took their toll on consumer spending. In the past 10 weeks, JPMorgan Global Wealth Management opened 40,000 new accounts. Last year, it added around one new client with assets of $100 million or more per day, Mary Erdoes, head of asset and wealth management at the bank, told investors last week. Dollar General customers turn to food banksDollar General (DG) stock had one of its worst days ever on Thursday.

Persons: New York CNN —, that’s, JPMorgan Chase, Andy Cohen, Mary Erdoes, It’s, Goldman Sachs, Louis Vuitton, Dom Pérignon, Dior, Huw Roberts, Hermes —, Roberts, ”, Erwan, “, Gregory Daco, Allison Morrow, Jeff Owen, Owen, Cash, They’re, Elisabeth Buchwald, Treasury hasn’t, Biden Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Wall, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, JPMorgan Global Wealth Management, Citigroup, International Monetary Fund, Lamborghini, HSBC, EY, Dollar, Treasury, US Treasury Locations: New York, China, United States, Germany, Europe, BlackRock

☆ It's unclear how consumers will cope with softer job market and more debt, says economist Greg Daco
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's unclear how consumers will cope with softer job market and more debt, says economist Greg DacoGregory Daco, EY-Parthenon Chief Economist, joins 'Fast Money' to explain why he's bearish on the consumer in a softening economy.

Persons: Greg Daco Gregory Daco

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